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Outlook 27th jun - 1st July

 

Salam.. Hope everyone had a great weekend. weekend ni saya float Ucad Sell. Kes dah profit tapi tunggu nak lebih lagi. news kluar pasal Bank of Canada xkan hike rate for a very extended period. anyhow, we decide on that on monday morning.

 

for this week. saya plan yg sama... just carry forward last week punye plan. why? sebab lauk sama lagi minggu ni. ada tambah perisa sikit sebanyak je.

 

GREECE, GREECE, GREECE, GREECE.... naik muak dah dengar pasal dorg ni. this week will be the season finale hopefully utk drama greece ni. Esok start bersidang parlimen Greece. Rabu dan khamis PM greece papadum (susah eja) tu akan dapat result pasal plan nak ikat perut org2 greece. kalau lulus, insyaAllah greece akan dapat next trunch of loan dari IMF dan sekutu. itu lah syarat2 IMF utk bagi duit lagi. tp, ni balance yang lama punye bailout ni. lom cerita yang baru. yang baru mungkin expected 110Bil Euro. banyak tu billion2... yang ni pon masalah besar sebab ramai negara xnak kluar duit dah utk Greece. so trade hati2 kalau apa2 pair berkenaan Euro. market akan choppy menunggu result parliment.

 

ajinomoto utk short Euro adalah Rating agency Moody dah letak beberapa bank di Italy dalam perhatian utk di downgrade rating dia. ini menunjukkan Italy yg juga core country dalam Euro ni pon tengah bermasalah.

bila tengok ForexFactory plak, nampak gaya forecast data agak bercampur2. CPI expected naik, business climate expected turun,German Retail sales expected naik... and unemplyment di eurozon expected tak berubah, which is bad news..

 

kita tengok USD..

sebagaimana saya cerita last week, ending Qualitative Easing2 (QE2) tu mmg bagi power extra kat dollar bila stock market selloff. trima kasih Ben Jambang. walaupon growth revised lower.. still, dollar dapat benefit. this week, saya dok tengok mangkuk air ni.. nampak dollar akan turun sebab stock market akan retrace up.. 

Crude price plak ada possiblity correction up sebab extra suppy dari IEA and US dah priced in by this week.

kata pak belalang.. Dollar Index ada possibility buat double top kat TF H1.. sampai good support, akan bounced balik ke atas.

 usdx27jun2011

http://www.imageno.com/zii3q8hc52xfpic.html

 

tu gambar dollar index conteng2 garis2.. insyaAllah, saya nak buy sikit pair GU, EU, EJ, GJ esok lot anak sotong je kot, squad berani mati, SL kat low last week.

 

GBP?

 

Buy dulu sikit.. 20-30 pips.. then wait for more bearish signal... personally saya bearish lagi GBP ni..

 

Yen?

as always, my strategy is in UJ.. Buy big margin bila price cecah level 79.50 sampai 80.20 range. insyaAllah, ranging market kat UJ ni amik masa utk breakout. so, Buy dip strategy.

 

sekiranya Greece berjaya dapat next cash dari IMF sebelom July.. InsyaAllah, risk appetite will kick in and dollar will suffer la ye. termasuk la CHF and Yen..

 

bottom line, decide based on what the price is doing on your chart. not what I think or even what YOU think..

 

good luck..

UPDATE Monday Afternoon. European Session

http://www.imageno.com/x0l5bram0mq2pic.html

Dollar index pagi2 lagi dah terus panjat ke resistance level (supply). nampak sekarang dah reject. ada sedikit pre-risk appetite mula kluar. rasanye saya hold dulu ucad saya ni.

plan nak buy GU GJ EJ EU.. tp rezeki takde. terlepas bas.. 

usdx27jun2011a


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