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Outlook 4th-8th July 2011

salam..

Last week mmg spectacular betul EUR.. dengan ending data PMI yg bagus, memang bagi equity lonjak naik.  habis dollar kena tekan. good thing is, issue greece settle utk sementara waktu sampai duit dia pinjam tu habis. dah habis, nnt menggelupor lagi. skrang kita tunggu impact "penjimatan" yang dorg buat. adakah rakyat akan paksa-rela terima je atau dorg akan terus menerus riot sampai langsung ekonomi makin teruk. walaupon nampak remeh, tapi kalau dah jadi mcm kat middle east... it is unstoppable..

ada yang bertanya, kenapa EUR naik walaupon banyak negara mereka bermasalah? bab ni, sebenarnya, bergantung banyak pada spekulasi. investor tak tengok real issue, dorg more kepada anticipation on what will happen berdasarkan action plan dan usaha2 pilitician and ahli2 ekonomi di euro zone. dan market is looking at China yg dah "janji" akan tolong Euro dan xkan biarkan negara2 euro default. so, ini mmg strong reason utk risk taker speculator utk tambah exposure dalan euro currency. Middle east pon banyak masuk duit ke euro lately.. cuma kena hati2, bubble kat euro ni sangat senang utk pecah.. kenara investor masih cautios walaupon mereka mangambil risiko. 

so, minggu ni focus beralih kepada pakcik trichet and NFP serta bonus MPC Rate statement (GBP). kalau kita tengok pada apa trichet dok kompang, strong vigilance tu masih kuat. so, very likely interest rate akan naik dari 1.25 jadi 1.5%. tapi, majority analysts cakap, another hike akan hurt weaker euro countries like ireland, spain and portugal. kalau dia degil jugak, and hike ke 1.5, kita leh expect EURUSD rush up to 1.4680-1.4700, before making a retracement. tengok daily chart kat EU, the down TL dah consider broken sebab daily price dah close way above the trendline. 1.4450 dah jadi support. so, kita nampak short-term fundamental dan Technical aligned untuk minggu ni. so, i would consider Buying Dip. kalau price retrace sampay level Trenline tu, I will Buy eurusd. However, jika price break below TL and hold below 1.4450, kena re-asses analysis.

mari kita tengok Dollar. apa cerita dollar minggu lepas? expect kuat untuk mid week, tapi junam. yes, Greek voting berjaya.. and relieve rally euro dan semua riskier instruments bagi pressure pada dollar.  Dari segi fundamental. QE2 dah ending, cuma duit yg Feds inject tu masih circulating in the market. so, the impact is yet to be a major factor for dollar strength. unless Feds starts pulling out the money dari mortage related securities. dengan kata lain, Jual.. and akan pressure all equity market. very unlikely feds nak stock market US jatuh.

lagi satu issue US ni, debt ceiling yg dah paras hidung. khabarnye, dorg wajib naikkan ceiling tu, dalam bahasa melayu, tambah lagi hutang. dah tak tertanggung dah hutang dorg ni. last date to decide on ceiling hike, 2nd august, bila Hike, insyaAllah it will be dollar positive event and dollar will rally. untill then.. dollar will remain pressured.

Next item this week untuk dollar, ADP Nonfarm payroll dgn Job Rate + NFP data.  ADP forecast Higher Job creation (66k), Unemployment claims expected lower by 7k, and NFP job data expected higher by 33k. so, data2 forecast ni, semuanya bullish for equity market, hence pressure pada dollar. so, kita leh tgk rally in SP500 to continue sampai real news release. at least sampai rabu for ADP.

Tengok pada technical, DOllar index dah break major Trendline, skrang dah consolidate bawah SBR (support become resistance) zone. saya expect index ni akan turun ke bawah sikit lagi sampai level zone Hijau tu, which is Low for december 2009. 

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/8607/usdx4jul2011daily.gif

http://www.imageno.com/ojgd8qddqcmjpic.html

Dollar Index 4July

http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/4010/usdx4jul2011h4.gif

http://www.imageno.com/hkqrtk5jrhp4pic.html

(LOGIN INTO IMAGESHACK TO VIEW PICTURE)

so, dengan FA and TA ni, saya plan to buy DIP on EU,EG and Echf. insyaAllah. 

Untuk GBP, saya carry forward je last week punye analysis. nothing new. rate will remain unchanged, so, cari level2 yg tinggi sikit utk saya SELL RALLY for GBPUSD.

Yen?

Definetely a Buy Dip for EURJPY, and buy dip for USDJPY. GBPJPY kemungkinan akan lekat dalam 80-100 pips range-bound.

to be continued tomorrow..

US cuti esok merdeka day..

wednesday, thursday and friday will be the exciting days... insyaAllah..

mulakan trading dengan bismillah 

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