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Outlook 11th -15th July 2011

Assalamualaikum,

hope everyone had a great result last week. mine was OK. Alhamdulillah. Data release last week memang mengelirukan especially Job data. ADP dgn Unemplyment claim both tunjukkan data yg banyak improve. giving false hope NFP akan bagi better number for job creation kat US. rupanya, tipah tertipu. Job data was worse than forecast despite strong ADP number.  I expected better data as sume data lain pointing to that direction. tapi, kita hanya merancang. so, di sebabkan Job data tu agak teruk, we might see a continuation impact of this news sampai minggu ni jugak. especially on stock market. this clearly shows that economy globally masih weak. especially in US. boleh tengok banyak "merah" la kat IA minggu ni. -risk aversion mode.

So far kita nampak Yen bertambah strong selepas Job news, acting as safe haven. USD dgn CHF belum dapat atention lagi. probably this week market akan turn to dollar and chf for risk averse.

Menu utama minggu ni, EUR banks stress test result - Selasa, dan juga FOMC minutes, pon selasa. watchout for breaking news dari eurozone.

Fundamentally, US is still in bad shape. market akan pay attention to Uncle Ben pada hari rabu nanti. what will Feds do to prevent more sell off in stocks market. so far, tengok pada chart SP500, the fall is likely to continue. secara teorinya, ini akan push dollar higher.  cuma, jika Uncle Ben bagi hint on QE3, market mmg akan turn bearish dollar balik. so, my strategy for this week, intraday and session breakout and after midnight scalping. target pair, GBPUSD, EURUSD and EURJPY. 3 pair ni saya biased bearish. sell rally would be a good idea. 

EUR as of now dapat la sedikit nafas selepas Uncle Trichet hike rate. tapi, according to analyst, this action will bring negative impact kpd ireland, greece, portugal and even italy. 

lets have a look at futures dollar index chart.

Weekly candle was a decent bullish candle. more upside movement is expected for dollar. in term of SnR, dollar dah open above the down TL yg turun dari 6/6/2010 extended to 9/1/2011 peak. kalau minggu ni pon close atas TL ni, insyaAllah, bull will continue. Next resistance is aroun 70-80 pips away kat atas tu.  a test move up to break that resistance akan reflect a 100-150 pips movement downward in EURUSD. 

usdx11jul_2011_daily

Minggu ni, insyaAllah I will monitor USDCAD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, EURCHF,GBPJPY, EURJPY. since I am biased bullish dollar, I will look to sell Dollar quote pair and buy dollar based pair (USDCAD).

will update mote later today..  tido sat

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