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Outlook 18th -22nd July 2011

Salam...

adoi dah tulis panjang tapi terdelete. terpaksa tulis balik. last week FOMC and bank stress test kat eur zone dah settle. tapi implikasi dia akan continue ke minggu ni. 

FOMC: banyak diskas pasal debt and how to handle ceiling hike. juga pasal stimulus. market responded strongly on "QE3 option is on the table" statement, yg kemudian nya lemau balik selepas Core CPI show good improvement. overall 1.6% increase tahun ni so far. so, uncle ben cakap balik QE3 unlikely. so, risiko money printing is OFF buat masa ni. so focus kepada Debt ceiling hike discussion antara republican and democrats. ala2 PKR dgn BN nak decide on something big, tapi masing2 taknak ambik responsibility in case things go wrong. August 2nd is the big day. tapi things must be done deal by 22nd July to allow sometime utk procesing nitty gritty birokrasi tu agaknye. so far US dah hike debt ceiling sebanyak 71 kali since ceiling was implemented. utk bacaan details pasal ceiling, leh refer bawah ni.

http://www.carigold.com/portal/forums/showpost.php?p=10137700&postcount=1045

kiranya macam kita pakai credit card, tapi dok bayar minima je everymonth. tiba2 nak pakai duit lebih, kena mohon bank increase credit limit. benda elok ke tak pada pandangan tuan2? elok utk solution temporary, tapi long term gali kubur sendiri. gali lobang tutup lobang.

Kita akan cuba diskass impact on debt ceiling ni dalam article lain. panjang benor..
EURO ZONE BANK STRESS TEST. apa bondo yang stress nya? bank ke yg stress? hehehe.. ok test ni dibuat utk simulate keadaan yang paling teruk dalam ekonomi, dan juga tahap kekuatan bank tersebut berdasarkan kemampuan bank tersebut pada masa sekarang. . jika dalam simulasi menggunakan keupayaan semasa bank menunjukan bank tu tak boleh survive, tak cukup duit ke, kena pinjam bank pusat lagi ke.. meaning they are not ready for the worst and nees to do action plan utk ready for the worst. 
ni second time dorg buat test and kedua2 nya di pertikaikan oleh market dan juga analyst. kerana result too good to be true. seolah2 ECB nak cover line situasi sebenar dengan bank2 di europe. pada masa skrang ni, Bond yields bg negara2 seperti Greece, spain, portugal, irelan dan even italy is rising compare to german Bond. so, ini menunjukan market is bearish euro bond. so, not a good sign. leh google term euro bond spread utk details pasal ni. bottom line di sini, 8 failed bank in test did not earned confidence from market even the number is way below expectation (15). 
so risk event this week.
look for credit rating agencies statement. sapo plak CRA ni? depa ni adalah thisrd party yg buat analysis on credit bagi sesebuah negara specializing in bond. so, depa ni jadi reference utk investor allocate the investment kat mana2 negara. ada banyak CRA ni, nama2 yang besar adalah Standard & Poor (S&P), Moody and Fitch. bila depa 3 ekoq ni cakap nk downgrade ata DAH downgrade credit sesebuah negara, market akan respont violently. fot the time being, Greek dah kena rate macam junk dah. tak laku dah nak jual. manakala US, mungkin kena downgrade dari rating top dorg. so, kalau betul kena downgrade, investor will sell US treasuries, causing spike in yield and causing stock market to "terjun" ke longkang. dalam kata lain, it would be a risk off (aversion) scenario, 
more reading material about CRA - 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_rating_agency

in conclusion: minggu ni market akan follow dollar.  saya focus price action and TA utk minggu ni at least sampai rabu before reevaluating. 

Updating chart dulu. let's look at USDX.. TF Daily

http://www.imageno.com/0d0rcmksbr4apic.html 

dollarindex_d1_18jul_2011

- Doji On daily. Monday candle will decide the direction of the week. Support MA60, and Golden 61.8% Fibo. down below is Uptrend trendline as support. tgk pada chart pattern on daily, no New Low has been created. Looks like Bull masih on track in long/medium term utk dollar.  Tapi, kalau zoom to lower TF seperti H1, possibility a slight move ke selatan masih ada kerana minor TL dah broken. 

kita tgk chart baru, SP500 untuk minggu ni. kenapa? sebab menu besar kita nak kena tengok adalah Debt Ceiling in US. so, stock market depa akan pengaruhi dollar dan risk sentiment.

sp500jul18_2011

Sp500 Bull skrang ni limited kat 100 Days moving average. (SMA100). target saya personally nak tgk price hit demand zone and 61.8% fibo. Psycho level of 1,300 point pon ada kat area yang sama. very likely market will try to hit this area.

dari segi technical, daily CS utk EU GU ada Doji + Spinning. probably market akan buy USD esok and sell euro. Saya cerita fundamental driver esok pagi.

to be continued

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