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some updates summary below. Off Trade. will resume next week.

- Debt Ceiling deal almost done. closely matching to scenario 2 mentioned last week. so, memang dollar, yen and chf strong as stock down. 

- ISM manufacturing down, last week US GDP number pon down. expectation for QE3 kembali lagi.

- market masih "nervous" in case Moody or S&P downgrade. tapi probability downgrade making kurang.

- SP500 remain bawah 1300 point. brearish pressure intact. mmg bagus utk gold, dollar.

- major market mover

  1: MPC rate meeting GBP, expect negative utk GBP

  2: Unemplyment claims - forecast meningkat, bad for US economi, stock will fall. dollar, yen, chf & gold mungkin naik on aversion.

  3. NFP - Job creation masih rendah. forecast cuma 91k. kalau lower than this, USD akan jatuh teruk sebab ini akan hidupkan kembali sentiment utk stimulus QE3. kalau dapat 100k+, insyaAllah dollar akan recover. stock pon akan naik. Gold akan jatuh, treasuries/bond price pon turun (yield naik).

stay alert dgn rating agencies yg tgh monitor Spain, portogal, greece, ireland. even france. EUR zone masih x stabil. also alert dgn BOJ intervention. hati2 kalau short yen crosess.

usdxaug1st_2011_h1

http://www.oasiswealthbuilders.com/images/stories/usdxaug1st_2011_h1.gif

sp500_indexjaug1

http://www.oasiswealthbuilders.com/images/stories/sp500_indexjaug1.gif

mondays movement: Debt deal positive news + ISM bad data aversion= extreme movement. 

extremeaversionaug1st

p/s: need to rest due to USDJPY tragedy. :-(

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