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Outlook 4th-8th July 2011

salam..

Last week mmg spectacular betul EUR.. dengan ending data PMI yg bagus, memang bagi equity lonjak naik.  habis dollar kena tekan. good thing is, issue greece settle utk sementara waktu sampai duit dia pinjam tu habis. dah habis, nnt menggelupor lagi. skrang kita tunggu impact "penjimatan" yang dorg buat. adakah rakyat akan paksa-rela terima je atau dorg akan terus menerus riot sampai langsung ekonomi makin teruk. walaupon nampak remeh, tapi kalau dah jadi mcm kat middle east... it is unstoppable..

ada yang bertanya, kenapa EUR naik walaupon banyak negara mereka bermasalah? bab ni, sebenarnya, bergantung banyak pada spekulasi. investor tak tengok real issue, dorg more kepada anticipation on what will happen berdasarkan action plan dan usaha2 pilitician and ahli2 ekonomi di euro zone. dan market is looking at China yg dah "janji" akan tolong Euro dan xkan biarkan negara2 euro default. so, ini mmg strong reason utk risk taker speculator utk tambah exposure dalan euro currency. Middle east pon banyak masuk duit ke euro lately.. cuma kena hati2, bubble kat euro ni sangat senang utk pecah.. kenara investor masih cautios walaupon mereka mangambil risiko. 

so, minggu ni focus beralih kepada pakcik trichet and NFP serta bonus MPC Rate statement (GBP). kalau kita tengok pada apa trichet dok kompang, strong vigilance tu masih kuat. so, very likely interest rate akan naik dari 1.25 jadi 1.5%. tapi, majority analysts cakap, another hike akan hurt weaker euro countries like ireland, spain and portugal. kalau dia degil jugak, and hike ke 1.5, kita leh expect EURUSD rush up to 1.4680-1.4700, before making a retracement. tengok daily chart kat EU, the down TL dah consider broken sebab daily price dah close way above the trendline. 1.4450 dah jadi support. so, kita nampak short-term fundamental dan Technical aligned untuk minggu ni. so, i would consider Buying Dip. kalau price retrace sampay level Trenline tu, I will Buy eurusd. However, jika price break below TL and hold below 1.4450, kena re-asses analysis.

mari kita tengok Dollar. apa cerita dollar minggu lepas? expect kuat untuk mid week, tapi junam. yes, Greek voting berjaya.. and relieve rally euro dan semua riskier instruments bagi pressure pada dollar.  Dari segi fundamental. QE2 dah ending, cuma duit yg Feds inject tu masih circulating in the market. so, the impact is yet to be a major factor for dollar strength. unless Feds starts pulling out the money dari mortage related securities. dengan kata lain, Jual.. and akan pressure all equity market. very unlikely feds nak stock market US jatuh.

lagi satu issue US ni, debt ceiling yg dah paras hidung. khabarnye, dorg wajib naikkan ceiling tu, dalam bahasa melayu, tambah lagi hutang. dah tak tertanggung dah hutang dorg ni. last date to decide on ceiling hike, 2nd august, bila Hike, insyaAllah it will be dollar positive event and dollar will rally. untill then.. dollar will remain pressured.

Next item this week untuk dollar, ADP Nonfarm payroll dgn Job Rate + NFP data.  ADP forecast Higher Job creation (66k), Unemployment claims expected lower by 7k, and NFP job data expected higher by 33k. so, data2 forecast ni, semuanya bullish for equity market, hence pressure pada dollar. so, kita leh tgk rally in SP500 to continue sampai real news release. at least sampai rabu for ADP.

Tengok pada technical, DOllar index dah break major Trendline, skrang dah consolidate bawah SBR (support become resistance) zone. saya expect index ni akan turun ke bawah sikit lagi sampai level zone Hijau tu, which is Low for december 2009. 

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/8607/usdx4jul2011daily.gif

http://www.imageno.com/ojgd8qddqcmjpic.html

Dollar Index 4July

http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/4010/usdx4jul2011h4.gif

http://www.imageno.com/hkqrtk5jrhp4pic.html

(LOGIN INTO IMAGESHACK TO VIEW PICTURE)

so, dengan FA and TA ni, saya plan to buy DIP on EU,EG and Echf. insyaAllah. 

Untuk GBP, saya carry forward je last week punye analysis. nothing new. rate will remain unchanged, so, cari level2 yg tinggi sikit utk saya SELL RALLY for GBPUSD.

Yen?

Definetely a Buy Dip for EURJPY, and buy dip for USDJPY. GBPJPY kemungkinan akan lekat dalam 80-100 pips range-bound.

to be continued tomorrow..

US cuti esok merdeka day..

wednesday, thursday and friday will be the exciting days... insyaAllah..

mulakan trading dengan bismillah 

Outlook 27th jun - 1st July

 

Salam.. Hope everyone had a great weekend. weekend ni saya float Ucad Sell. Kes dah profit tapi tunggu nak lebih lagi. news kluar pasal Bank of Canada xkan hike rate for a very extended period. anyhow, we decide on that on monday morning.

 

for this week. saya plan yg sama... just carry forward last week punye plan. why? sebab lauk sama lagi minggu ni. ada tambah perisa sikit sebanyak je.

 

GREECE, GREECE, GREECE, GREECE.... naik muak dah dengar pasal dorg ni. this week will be the season finale hopefully utk drama greece ni. Esok start bersidang parlimen Greece. Rabu dan khamis PM greece papadum (susah eja) tu akan dapat result pasal plan nak ikat perut org2 greece. kalau lulus, insyaAllah greece akan dapat next trunch of loan dari IMF dan sekutu. itu lah syarat2 IMF utk bagi duit lagi. tp, ni balance yang lama punye bailout ni. lom cerita yang baru. yang baru mungkin expected 110Bil Euro. banyak tu billion2... yang ni pon masalah besar sebab ramai negara xnak kluar duit dah utk Greece. so trade hati2 kalau apa2 pair berkenaan Euro. market akan choppy menunggu result parliment.

 

ajinomoto utk short Euro adalah Rating agency Moody dah letak beberapa bank di Italy dalam perhatian utk di downgrade rating dia. ini menunjukkan Italy yg juga core country dalam Euro ni pon tengah bermasalah.

bila tengok ForexFactory plak, nampak gaya forecast data agak bercampur2. CPI expected naik, business climate expected turun,German Retail sales expected naik... and unemplyment di eurozon expected tak berubah, which is bad news..

 

kita tengok USD..

sebagaimana saya cerita last week, ending Qualitative Easing2 (QE2) tu mmg bagi power extra kat dollar bila stock market selloff. trima kasih Ben Jambang. walaupon growth revised lower.. still, dollar dapat benefit. this week, saya dok tengok mangkuk air ni.. nampak dollar akan turun sebab stock market akan retrace up.. 

Crude price plak ada possiblity correction up sebab extra suppy dari IEA and US dah priced in by this week.

kata pak belalang.. Dollar Index ada possibility buat double top kat TF H1.. sampai good support, akan bounced balik ke atas.

 usdx27jun2011

http://www.imageno.com/zii3q8hc52xfpic.html

 

tu gambar dollar index conteng2 garis2.. insyaAllah, saya nak buy sikit pair GU, EU, EJ, GJ esok lot anak sotong je kot, squad berani mati, SL kat low last week.

 

GBP?

 

Buy dulu sikit.. 20-30 pips.. then wait for more bearish signal... personally saya bearish lagi GBP ni..

 

Yen?

as always, my strategy is in UJ.. Buy big margin bila price cecah level 79.50 sampai 80.20 range. insyaAllah, ranging market kat UJ ni amik masa utk breakout. so, Buy dip strategy.

 

sekiranya Greece berjaya dapat next cash dari IMF sebelom July.. InsyaAllah, risk appetite will kick in and dollar will suffer la ye. termasuk la CHF and Yen..

 

bottom line, decide based on what the price is doing on your chart. not what I think or even what YOU think..

 

good luck..

UPDATE Monday Afternoon. European Session

http://www.imageno.com/x0l5bram0mq2pic.html

Dollar index pagi2 lagi dah terus panjat ke resistance level (supply). nampak sekarang dah reject. ada sedikit pre-risk appetite mula kluar. rasanye saya hold dulu ucad saya ni.

plan nak buy GU GJ EJ EU.. tp rezeki takde. terlepas bas.. 

usdx27jun2011a


UPDATE 23rd Jun: WEEKLY OUTLOOK 21-24 JUNE 2011

Menu Utama dah selesai.

 

MPC Meeting --->As Expected No HIke. GBP weaken and will take direction of USD and JPY movement. 

FOMC ---> Beberapa mildly hawkish statement daripada Uncle Ben. Dollar gain strength after pressured oleh eur bull pada awal minggu. QE2 ending as we expected. tapi growth forecast lowered dari 3.3 kpd 2.9. and interest rate extended for another extended period. 2-3 kali meeting lagi le tu. 

http://www.imageno.com/vgvdeahfop38pic.html

dollar index pon dah breakout ke atas. InsyaAllah kalau hold above TL tu, gagah la dollar sampai next week. market masih cautious. august ni last date to decide utk naik kan had hutang US. kalau naik had, UJ will fly, yield Up, and dollar gain strength.

Greece --> Cabinet Vote Passed. market already priced in this earlier. tapi tak semudah itu utk settle hutang greece ni.. 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jun/23/greece-eurozone-reality-default?

USDJPY --> Bought, and close with handsome profit. Alhamdulillah. Currently sell EU and EJ. SL at previous high. 

 

 

Weekly Outlook 21-24 June 2011.

Salam.. 

Minggu ni agak kabur dari segi fundamental.. at least up to this writing. kejap good news, kejap bad news.. so, I stick to technical analysis. sampai rabu ni. kenapa? sebab awal pagi khamis tu FOMC meeting. this is the highlight of the week. nanti kita cerita satu persatu..

mari tgk dollar index. click link below for better picture. 

dollarindex20jun2011

http://www.imageno.com/gm75eathpqwbpic.html

jumaat lepas USDx lonjak naik sebab weakness in eur and GBP. sampai lah index reject monthly high level 76.50. based on fibo retracement, skrang ni USDx dah 100% retrace and need a new high to go up further. since dia baru reject 100% fibo (previous Mnthly hi), bermakna sekarang index dah berada di "confluence" 38.3 retracement utk trend dari 73.50 sampai 76.46 dgn 61.8% seperti gambar di atas. boleh di leihat sebagai strong support.

dari segi TA, saya nampak bull tu nak continue. pada TF h4. jika kita lihat TF H1, kelihatan Index pada support yg kukuh tetapi perjalanan bear mungkin menuju 261% fibo iaitu 74.80 jika support zone pecah. refer gambar.  dengan harapan, fundamental akan support dari point2 yang berikut.

http://www.imageno.com/kouooj6n1vrjpic.html

dollarindex_h1_20jun2011

Dollar:

1) Ending Qualitative Easing 2 program (QE2). leh google kalau nak tahu lebih lanjut. 30th june ni tamat. stock akan jatuh, riskier asset akan dijual and pindah kepada safe haven seperti yen, dollar dan CHF. 

2) Hawkish statement dari Ben bernake pada press conference FOMC meeting. masa ni la dia akan cerita apa Feds nak buat dgn billions asset yg dorg beli utk support liquidity since Lehman Bro crash. Hawkish --> berita2 baik, hint2 berkenaan kenaikan rate.

3) US unemployement Claims dijangka berkurangan atau tidak berubah. dollar positive jugak tu. Mungkin juga Housing data selasa boleh mempengaruhi dollar positively.

Euro:

1) Saya masih biased bearish untuk EuroUsd walaupon saya ada position buy. Krisis hutang greece terlalu besar untuk di pandang ringan. walaupon IMF, ECB dan segala negara euro berbincang utk selamatkan Greece, possibility utk further bad event bg greece amat besar.  

- penglibatan private sector diperlukan. Euro Finance ministry + ecb + imf tak mencukupi utk greece.

- Austerity di greece perlu di pertingkatkan, iaitu, kurangkan subsidi, benefit, gaji kepada pekerja kerajaan, dan increase tax bagi pekerja swasta. 

- Spread yield antara spanish bond dgn german Bund semakin besar. menandakan debt di spain juga adalah high liability.

- July scheduled interest hike will hurt euro country more. "strong vigilance" masih di sebut utk kekalkan stability.

- Greek confidence vote utk currecnt goverment and restructure of the cabinet. 

http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2011/06/20/europes-fate-hangs-from-a-thread-ahead-of-greek-confidence-vote/

http://www.euronews.net/2011/06/20/greek-crucial-confidence-vote-approaches/

GBP (sterling)

1) MPC meeting. 6 org dalam commitee tak nak hike rate di UK, 3 org nak hike. selagi takde tanda2 utk hike rate despite high inflation, GBP akan suffer. so dengan data ini sahaja, saya bearish dgn GBP. november is the expected rate hike. 

Yen

Seperti minggu2 lepas, saya masih bearish untuk yen. memang mencari ruang utk buy di UJ. walaubagaimana pun, saya mungkin sell EJ GJ dgn tight stop-loss. 

Semoga ulasan saya memberi sedikit gambaran utk minggu ini. trade at your own risk. this is for educational purpose sahaja.

p/s: sedikit peransang utk para trader. hasil 20 hari trading. Alhamdulillah. 

Image_02_Jun._21_01.40 

Update 16hb June. GBPUSD, EURUSD Technical Trade

salam, currently saya hold sell EURUSD dari atas. tetapi, pada masa ini, price dah tersekat pada support daily lower trendline. 

http://www.imageno.com/txhdywynbdgvpic.html hold kerana masih belom ada penyelesaian di Eurozone mengenai greece bailout.

saya juga Buy GU berdasarkan support pada daily Lower Trendline. 

http://www.imageno.com/maolsy7kepvopic.html

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